Where HAS the Summer Gone?

There is no doubt that the summer of 2008 has been hugely disappointing. Rarely have there been two consecutive dry days and the sun seems to be constantly veiled by cloud. But how bad is the summer really? And are we justified in complaining so loudly about it?

Many people probably felt we had a raw deal last year. The summer of 2007 was indeed poor. In Bristol, Barry Horton (the unofficial ‘keeper of the records’ at Totterdown) reported that although it was only the 99th coolest out of 132 years of data , it was the 22nd wettest out of 132 years. Ranking both temperature and rainfall the summer of 2007 in Bristol was the 55th worst summer in 132 years. The previous poorest summer was 1988 which was 49th.

     Where have all the beach babes gone?

In other parts of the region it was worse. Simon Ratsay, who keeps records for Wellington, going back more than 40 years reported that it was the second wettest and fourth coolest since his records began.

Simon also makes the point that whilst 2007 was the worst summer since 1988, there were similarly poor summers in 1986, 1985 and 1980. He suggests that there is a generation of younger people who have had more than their fair share of good summers (2006 and 2003 in particular) and who have never endured a ‘bad’ summer.

Hopefully, that places the summer of 2008 in some context. Whilst there is still half a month to go before we can really analyse the summer as a whole, it is probably true to say that it will lie within the bounds of our normal climatic variability.

So how bad has this summer been? The summer of 2008 has been mixed, to say the least. Surprising as it may seem, June was an unusually dry month with less than two thirds of what we would normally expect. Temperatures, though, were below average. It was the coolest June since 2002.

Temperatures in July were around average but what was exceptional was the amount of rain - well over double what we would expect in a typical July.

August, of course, is not even half finished so there is still plenty of time for the weather to improve. But the first 12 days have seen 68 mm - that's a full month's rainfall already. But unless something exceptional happens in the next two weeks (which looks unlikely) then the only record likely to fall is sunshine.

  Summer 2008 - not a great one for topping up the tan

Unofficially, it looks as though this could be an even duller summer than 2007. Assuming August continues in the same vein this is a league table of summer sunshine since 2003. (NB it is based on data from Roger Partridge at Yatesbury near Calne and is unofficial)

Year Hours of sunshine
2006 651
2003 542
2004 460
2007 442
2008 400

There is no doubt that we have unrealistic expectations of our summer. This may be because more and more of us take foreign holidays. Spend a week on a Mediterranean beach under clear blue skies and it makes you wish for similar weather upon your return to Blighty.

WE also have very poor memories when it comes to weather. Mention the scorching summer of 2006 or 2003 and people look blankly at you. these were exceptional summers, perhaps not as outstanding as 1975 or 1976 but probably far more ‘above average’ than this summer is ‘below average’.

Perhaps, too, we expect our weather to be much warmer, and by default, sunnier, in these days of climate change. Too many of us confuse weather with climate. Even as our country becomes warmer by the year, our weather refuses to become any less changeable. In fact, this is entirely consistent with climate change. Our weather is likely to become more extreme, not less.

So, love it or loath it, THIS is what our summers are like. Rain one day, showers the following day, cloudy but dry the next. If we begin to accept this as the norm, perhaps we can then learn to fully appreciate the sunny days when they do arrive.